There are only three more days
until free agency begins in the NHL and with it the seemingly inevitable
marriage of Brad Richards and the New York Rangers will undoubtedly commence. The level of assumption it will happen has
gotten to the point that Daze Lozo of NHL.com described the
Rangers and Brad Richards signing saying, “With July 1 just days away, it seems
there are only three things in life that are guaranteed -- death, taxes
and Brad Richards signing a lucrative free-agent contract with
the New York Rangers."
The reason the confidence is growing
in the inevitability of Richards to New York is the lack of teams capable of
meeting his demands keeps dwindling.
After acquiring Mike Richards, the Los Angeles Kings are thought to be
out of the running. The Tampa Bay
Lightning, likely Richards preferred destination, have to worry about signing
Steven Stamkos before they ever get to Richards. There is also the issue of what kind of money
could be left once Stamkos is signed.
That leaves the Rangers and Toronto Maple Leafs as the main competitors
for Richards. There is no doubt that
Brian Burke will throw everything he can at Richards to either win him or drive
the price for the Rangers upwards. There
is also no doubt that Brad Richards on the Rangers makes them a better team
next season. The question that is not
being asked enough is whether the short-term gain of Richards outweighs the
long-term risk?
The question is taken off the
table for the most part if the contract is five years or less, but there appears
to be no intention on Richards part than to get a deal to end his career. If the deal is of the 7+ season variety, then
there are numerous negatives that have to be considered for the long-term. The most obvious issue is the erosion of
skill that Richards is likely to see 3-4 years into the deal where he is being
paid for the player he is, and production he provides today while at a
decreased level. Next would be the fact
that even with Richards the Rangers are likely not a championship contender
this coming season because the majority of the team is still 2-3 years away
from being contending players. When the
rest of the team catches up to where Richards is today, Richards will likely have
begun and erosion of his level of play.
Adding to the negatives of a
career deal this summer for Richards is concern about what will happen with the
next collective-bargaining agreement (CBA) in terms of the salary cap which has
to come down. Locking in Richards for a
significant term at large dollars could cause the Rangers to be back in salary
cap issues because of the limited flexibility they might end up with under this
inflated salary cap.
For many, all of those risks are
worth it to take the gamble at wining a Stanley Cup during his tenure in New
York. If Richards can actually bring Marian
Gaborik back to the form he played at during the 2009-10 season while
maintaining his own level, then the Rangers become more serious threats to win
a championship. Even with those two
things panning out perfectly the Rangers are going to need all those who had
career years to repeat that and many of the young players to take another step forward
in their development. Will all those
pieces fall in place in the short-term to make those long term risks worth
it? Highly unlikely.
Worse than the discussion of
whether the Rangers should or shouldn’t get Richards is the idea that they must
get him because there is no one else and they have to have someone this
summer. It is easy to make the straw man
argument that Richards is the best of the options because he costs only money,
but that does not inherently make giving him the 8 year deal that some are
reporting he wants is a good idea. The
Rangers have changed the way they conduct business over the past few years in
avoiding big name free agents, mainly from lack of money, and giving young
players a chance to take on significant roles.
There is nothing that requires reverting back from this model which is
giving more hope than in recent memory to that which saw the Rangers trying to
buy the big names in hopes of huge returns, only to come up short. Richards is definitely better than Gomez,
Drury, Holik and those other overpaid New York Ranger free agent signings, but
that doesn’t mean he won’t erode long term nor does it mean his addition makes
this team capable of winning a title in the short term.
It appears that Glen Sather and company are going to revert
back to the past and pay the man what he wants to come to New York, which will
end up a mistake because the long-term risks outweigh the actually short-term
gains. The inevitability of Richards ending up in New York seems overwhelming at this point, but that does not mean it is the right move for a franchise that has come so far by curbing their obsession with the big name buy.
