Trade Deadline: Will Recent Struggles Force Stars to Consider Dealing on Brad Richards?

Over the past week all of the movement to be buyers has come out of the Western Conference due to how close the standings are right now.  Another Western Conference team, the Dallas Stars, might just hold the key to how the rest of the trade market shapes up before the deadline in whether or not they make Brad Richards available within the next two weeks.  Compared to the other players said to be in the market right now, Richards would clearly be the best available commodity out there.  Many of the other players that are rumored to be possibly available have concerns (injury, salary) that make them less attractive to perspective teams or just lack that ability to fully change the race like Richards does to be worth the asking price. 

This season he was an All-Star selection and has produced 24 goals, 39 assists and 63 points in 56 games this season.  He would clearly be the best available commodity on the market and his Conn Smythe history would only make him more valuable to acquiring teams.  The question now is whether he will be made available before the deadline comes?

When the 2010-11 season began it was all but assumed that come the deadline Brad Richards would be on the trading block and teams would be lining up to sign him.  The rumors started early in the year, but what the rumors did not account for was the surprising start the Dallas Stars would get off to, led by Richards, and their ability to sustain it. 

Last month, with the Stars competing for the top spot in the West and with a comfortable lead in their division, they went out and made a buyers type move when they acquired Jamie Langenbrunner from the Devils.  When that move was made I said that the trade rumors surrounding Richards would come to an end because Dallas was making a statement that they were all in for this year.  The team responded beautifully following the trade, with a five game winning streak, but since struggles have hit their performance and with the Western Conference as tight as it is, maybe it is time to rethink whether Richards will be available after all.

With the tight race in the West and the uncertainty regarding ownership, along with uncertainty if Richards would stay, can the Stars really risk losing Richards for nothing this summer and not making the playoffs?  Would the better move for the long term health of the organization be to deal Richards to the highest bidder and set up the team with players, prospects and picks for the clear prime target that would be on the trade market?  That is the delicate decision that now awaits Stars GM Joe Nieuwendyk.

Currently Dallas still sits in first place in the Pacific Division, but they have lost seven of nine games which has left them tied in points with Anaheim, but ahead due to having played one less game.  The team is also a mere three points over last place Los Angeles.  Their standing in the West Conference is similar as they are currently third with 68 points, but only three points from being out of the playoffs altogether.

ESPN’s Pierre Lebrun took on whether the recent slide might make them move him instead of risking getting nothing this past Friday in his Crosschecks Blog:

But if the Stars are only one or two points clear of the danger zone come Feb. 28, do they not at least seek out what kind of package is out there for Richards, something that potentially could set up the Stars for five years?

Richards has a no-movement clause, but I'm guessing if the right team calls, he might be willing to waive it. Take Boston, for example. The B's now are armed with the Marc Savard cap savings and could offer him a chance at a Cup run.

Boston, as used in Lebrun’s hypothetical, certainly has the potential to offer a huge package for Richards as they might have the best trading chip out there right now; Toronto’s first round pick, acquired in the Phil Kessel trade.  A package that included a likely top 5 if not certainly top 10 selection in the draft would go a long way to meeting the price tag that LeBrun said Dallas would require to move him. 

Obviously Boston would not be the only team interested in the services of Brad Richards as New York, Toronto, Los Angeles and possibly even Pittsburgh would inquire among others in the asking price for the former Conn Smythe Award Winner.  His inclusion would also have a domino effect on the entire rest of the market both in terms of price and interest.  If you are a team that is looking to buy to make a run this season, Richards is the only elite player whose acquisition can take a team to that next level of contention.

The next week will likely define how available the Stars and general manager Joe Nieuwendyk make Richards because he is unlikely to get caught flat footed by waiting until the last day to see what is out there to be had.   When players like Mike Fisher, who is a good player, but more of a second line type player, receives a return of a 1st round pick in 2011 and conditional 2nd or 3rd in 2012, the amount that the Stars could get to build their future might be too tempting not to move him before the deadline on February 28. 

The decision will not be entirely Nieuwendyk’s to make because as Lebrun points out Richards has full control of whether he wants to go and where he would accept the move to.  This is one of those decisions that shapes a franchise for years to come because you either roll the dice and hope you come up lucky or in essence you fold the cards on this year to better control the cards you will have to play in the future.  While they decide in Dallas the trade market really lacks that game changing target for everyone to go after.

Does Langenbrunner Trade Take Brad Richards Off Market?

Harry How/Getty Images

The most talked about rumor all season long has been the idea that somehow and at some point the New York Rangers would deal for star center Brad Richards.  I know today everyone is focused on what this morning’s trade of Langenbrunner to the Dallas Stars means both for him and demise of the team from Newark, being someone who follows the New York Rangers I want to look a little closer to home and see what impact it has on the Rangers and that rumor.

For the Stars this was an easy move to make for it is a very low risk move to bring in a character guy like Langenbrunner to bolster the chances of your surprising team and to get him for half the season only improves the chances of maintaining their current standing.  The move also sends a message to the fans and the league that the Stars are in this to compete for a title, not become sellers.  Does it also signal the end of the Brad Richards trade rumors?

With Richards, 30, in the final year of his contract which pays him 7.8 million this season and the cash strapped nature of Stars ownership the assumption out there has been the team would at some point fade or even if they did not they would realize they were not going to be able to keep Richards in Dallas so they would sell him off to make sure they obtained a return for him.  That assumption must be taken into doubt now that they have made a buyers move even if deemed a small one in bringing back a championship caliber leader into their fold.  The Stars are currently in third in the Western Conference and Richards is playing like an MVP finalist (18-29-47) this season and with ownership on the way out dealing him away does not add value to the team, but keeping him and making a run in the playoffs would and it add current money to pockets via ticket and merchandise sales.

It is certainly true as Mike Heika wrote this morning in the Dallas Morning News, that until the ownership issues are resolved with the Dallas Stars it will be difficult to hammer out a long term deal with Richards, but that does not mean parameters cannot be set that would allow a new owner to come in and sign him quickly once the change occurs.

For many Rangers fans, including myself, the end of Richards trade rumors would be a welcomed event not because we do not want to obtain a top talent in the NHL, but because of what the cost would be in terms of the young assets the Rangers have built up over the past number of years.  Let the Stars play the season out and see what happens and then come July 1 if the Rangers can work out their own cap issues and want to go after Richards, then by all means, but as of today I believe it means he is off the market during the season.  Obviously Brad Richards was the golden goose out there for fans of many franchises to hope was coming as reinforcements for a title run but instead the Stars threw all their chips in and hope once again this star hoists Stanley's Cup.

Stars Establish Price In Richards Trade...Can Rangers Afford It?

The Brad Richards rumors have been coming fast and furious of late and tonight would be no exception to that.  In a chat today on ESPN.com, Pierre LeBrun in answering a question from a Stars fan about a possible Richards to New York Rangers trade said the following:

I know from talking to a Stars front office source that, should they ever decide to move Richards before this year's Feb. 28 trade deadline, it's only because 1) they weren't able to sign him to an extension and 2) they're offered the kind of deal that sets them up "for the next five years." That was the way the Stars source described a possible Richards deal. If the Stars move Richards, and there remains the chance that they won't, it's for a package that helps the team long term. So whether it's the Kings or Rangers or any other team ponying up for Richards, young assets will be the key component.

Yikes.  I have said all along that those who thought the Stars were going to give him away for the scraps some thought the Rangers could get him for were insane.  I also believe that if this deal goes down it will be for more than Kovalchuk got the Thrashers whether people believe that is the case or not or even if they think it should be. 

So let us fully break down what Pierre said.  The first piece of news that might shock some but not really myself is the idea that the Stars are trying to re-sign or should I say extend Richards contract passed this season.  There is all the talk about money problems and those are legit, but the moment they deal off Richards they lose a lot of revenue in ticket and merchandise sales.  Also with the good news for the Rangers on the cap increase yesterday there was also a negative for the Rangers in terms of someone like Richards.  What I mean by that is the cap floor also is raised to 46.4 million which means one way or another Dallas needs to spend some money so why not spend it on a guy that can help them win and make them money.  Obviously there is no guarantee Brad Richards wants to stay in Dallas or that they will give him the years or dollars it takes.

Now let’s take a look at what he said about any possible trade and see if we can deduce what the package for Brad Richards would have to look like to get it done and then if that amount is worth it.  Not to be too literal but I do not think it is an accident when they say set for the next five years and what I mean by that is they want talent that is under team control for the next five or so years before they hit free agency.  I think this takes guys like Dubinsky and Callahan off their wish list in because they are about to get paid this season, but it could put a Dan Girardi on it since he has a set deal for the next 3+ seasons.  More likely for me is that it means a deal built around Artem Anisimov or Derek Stepan as both are five or more years from free agency.  I think it also means you are going to have to add on at least one high end prospect and a high if not first round pick.  If I was guessing my package does not change much from what it was a month ago but something like Anisimov/Stepan + Kreider/Grachev/Werek + McDonagh and a pick.  To me that is the kind of package that can help shape a franchise for the next five seasons and it is one that the Rangers should take for themselves in keeping what they have and continuing forward in their building process. Obviously it is the case that what a team wants and what a team gets are too very different things in many cases, but that does not mean they have to deal him at the deadline for pennies on the dollar and frankly for me anything of value to the core of this team going forward is not worth the move.  From the Dallas perspective they can keep him and make a run at the playoffs which means more money for the ownership in tickets and revenue especially if they get in and it would also give them more time to sign him or he can be dealt like many others in the summer at the draft or before FA.

If Richards hits the open market in July then we can debate the cap merits of that then but if the Stars are truly looking for a package that “sets them up for the next five years” the Rangers must decline and hang up the phone.

Does Rising Salary Cap Change Rangers Options? Richards/Parise Types Now Possible?

The salary cap and what number it is set at each year is something that New York Rangers fans have had to follow very closely over the past few years because the club was in salary cap nightmare based on some of the huge contracts given out by Glen Sather over the years.  Last season the cap after being expected to go down surprisingly rose from 56.8 to 59.4 million and while 2.6 million might not seem like a whole lot is the reason deals like Marc Staal and Dan Girardi got done this past summer.  Now this coming summer there has been a lot of talk and speculation about the Rangers going after Brad Richards of the Dallas Stars, but before that happens the Rangers have five integral players who are RFA’s this summer: Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Callahan, Artem Anisimov, Brian Boyle, and Michael Sauer. 

The news on next year’s cap that first started over the weekend with Darren Dreger of TSN when first on twitter and then on TSN.ca that the cap could rise another 2 million dollars this coming offseason to a cap ceiling of 61.4 million.

Preliminary projections assume the Salary Cap will go up at least another $2 million in the 2011-12 season from the current level of $59.4 million.  This of course is under the assumption that the NHL Players' Association requests a five per cent inflator as is their right. 

Well this morning as the Board of Governor’s meetings are getting underway in Florida the reports are now circulating from Dave Shoalts of the Globe and Mail that the bump could be as much as 3 million for next year if the inflator is exercised and bring the cap to 62.4 million for 2011-12 season.  The reasoning from David is the following is that since the cap is based on revenues it means revenues are likely increasing but that those increases are being carried by the Canadian teams over the lackluster performances of some American markets. 

The reality for Rangers fans is they really do not care why the cap will be whatever it will be just what it is and what it means for their hockey club.  So, what does an increase to 62.4 million mean for the Rangers?

Before all Rangers fans go writing the checks to and buying the jerseys for Brad Richards on Broadway let us look at what the current cap scenario looks like, project what the key pieces that the Rangers should bring back are and then see what is left.  The following guys will surely be one from the team roster by next season: Alex Frolov, Todd White, Matt Gilroy, Vinny Prospal and probably Ruslan Fedotenko.  The key players that the team needs to sign are those I listed at the start and possibly Steve Eminger as an unrestricted free agent. 

Currently the Rangers have 13 players under contract for next season at a cap hit of 41.85 million dollars.  The players on that list in declining cap numbers are: Marian Gaborik, Chris Drury, Henrik Lundqvist, Michal Rozsival, Marc Staal, Dan Girardi, Sean Avery, Derek Boogaard, Michael Del Zotto, Erik Christensen, Derek Stepan, Martin Biron and Brandon Prust.  Having those 13 players in place the Rangers have a grand total of 20.5 million dollars under the cap to bring back the guys they want and/or add new ones.  If I had to project right now I would guess that the combination of Dubinsky (3.75), Callahan (3.4), Sauer (850K), Boyle (1.3), Anisimov (1.6) makes a grand total of 10.9 million.  That would give the Rangers 18 players under contract and 52.75 million spent with 9 million left to fill out the last five roster spots. 

If Mats Zuccarello is ready to make the team that is 1.75 million and you will either bring back Eminger at basically his current salary or call up one of the young guys from Hartford but let’s take that at 1.25 to be safe and call the combined 3 mil.  Those two moves give the Rangers six million to fill out the last 3 roster spots which is a considerable amount of flexibility but not nearly enough for a big name whether it be Richards, Semin, Ehrhoff as UFA’s or any other significant contract like a run at Zach Parise as an RFA.  Also must consider if any of the prospects like Horak, Hagelin, Kreider, Werek might be able to step in or Weise from the Whale to take spots.

The key to any big move for the Rangers this summer will still be the moving of Michal Rozsival in a trade and not taking back a significant salary in any such move.  If the Rangers could move Rozsival who will have value, especially to a team looking to hit the cap floor of 46.4 million but not spend that as his cap hit is 5 million but his salary is only 3.  Now if they are able to move Rozi it means that Eminger is either coming back or they are bringing in another top 4 defender to the club. 

The other place that this 3 million dollar bump really helps the Rangers is the summer when Wade Redden’s 6.5 million counts against the cap again but teams are allowed to exceed the cap by 10% which this summer will be virtually the full amount of Redden’s deal. 

In the end the 3 million is certainly a huge help to the Rangers in planning for next season, but that money alone does not afford them the flexibility to bring in a huge salary and if I was running the show, which obviously I am not I would play it how the Rangers initially did coming out of the lockout where you don’t spend and in a year you are looking at likely only needing new deal for Del Zotto and Prust while huge contracts like Drury, Rozi (if still here) and smaller ones like Avery, Christensen go away and your young talent is able to play or spend the money with a better understanding of what your long term needs are.  Remember this is a bad economy, it is time the Rangers show some fiscal responsibility.

Daily Recap: Rangers Quarter Pole Awards; Say No To Brad Richards; Prospect Updates

Today marked the first day after the first quarter of the season was over and there have certainly been highs in the first quarter of the year but overall the rollercoaster that has defined the last few Rangers seasons is still intact.  The overall effort has more consistent and the fight when they fall behind has been better this season, but the results have still been spotty and they still do not know how to build on momentum and maintain success.  The bright spots have certainly been the play of Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Callahan, Dan Girardi, Brian Boyle and Artem Anisimov as all have made big strides from last season.  There have been disappointments as well, but let us not dwell on them here.  What has been most evident with this team is that their success is rooted primarily in playing tough basic hockey by getting the puck in, pressuring the opposition and cycling the puck in the opposition zone.  When they fail to do that they generate little in terms of chances and it transfers to the defensive side.

Why the Rangers Must Resist Brad Richards Temptation

Today on Rangers Tribune Nick took a look at Bruce Garroich reviving the New York Rangers interested in Brad Richards rumor and threw in Mike Ribeiro just for good measure.  Nick did an excellent job of laying out the “rumor” that Garroich is trying to spark into something along with the financial scenarios for both Richards and Ribeiro and finally how enticing it is to think of Brad Richards teaming with Marian Gaborik.  I am going to take a little different approach in looking at the cost both financial and in terms of prospects to see if in the end it is worth it for the Rangers to truly consider it, but be sure to check out Nick’s write up.

As far as my take on the “rumor” itself Garroich has been saying for 2 years that the Rangers are trading Dubinsky for everyone including probably an actual dealer to buy doobies from, or at least that is how it seems.  Also the cloak and dagger of the whole exercise is very comical with the whispering and not even an unnamed source to throw out some names going back.  In reality it is a way to bump readership and not be on the hook if the trade never happens or to claim it “fell through.”