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The New York Rangers have had a tremendous offseason both in
adding missing pieces to their organization and in retaining key pieces of the
foundation to this point. Ryan Callahan
is the biggest piece to the puzzle remaining as the Rangers try to build a
championship contender. Coming off a
career season offensively where he scored 23 goals and had 25 assists in just
60 games Callahan is primed to get a hefty contract from New York. Since Brandon Dubinsky signed his four-year,
$16.8 million contract last Thursday there has been the natural comparative discussion
of what Dubinsky is going to make in relation to what Callahan should make.
Comparing the relative value of Callahan and Dubinsky is not
something that should be done because each are critical pieces to the Rangers
in their own way and even more so as a combined unit. Callahan is seen as the better leader and
better all-around player while Dubinsky is viewed as more skilled of the
two. Projections on Callahan’s potential
contract have factored in his breakout offensive season, the intangibles he
brings to the club, along with the expectation of his being named captain and
the combination seems to have taken the dollar figures out of hand.
There is more after the jump on where the numbers are deemed to be and where maybe they should be.
The discussion has revolved around the notion that Dubinsky
was just the ground floor for Callahan and he will assuredly make more in his
deal. Some have suggested that Callahan
could be inked for as high as $5 million per season. I love all that Ryan Callahan does for the New
York Rangers, but paying him anywhere near that is out of hand and has the Rangers
paying for intangibles plus the fact he will wear the ‘C’ instead of skill and
production on the ice.
Yes, I am well aware, as I showed above, that Callahan had 23
goals, and 25 assists for 48 points in 60 games, which over an 82 game schedule
would equate to 31 goals and 34 assists for 65 points. The question is whether you believe that was
what you can reasonably expect from Callahan offensively or if he returns back
more in the realm of what he did offensively prior to last season. Previously Callahan had failed to surpass 40
points in a season and had 53 goals and 43 assists in 224 career games. Those numbers equate to a 35 point season,
which certainly is not worth anything near where people are saying Callahan could
end up being paid. I am not saying that
Callahan will revert back to his career numbers and basically be a 35-40 point
guy, but the assumptions that he is going to now a consistent threat for 60+
points is a stretch for me and doesn’t jive with those who are having doubts
about players like Brian Boyle being able to repeat there drastic improvements. I expect his to have 50-55 points with
approximately equal totals in goals and assists.
There is no denying the importance that Callahan has to the
team in many facets of the game and that will likely see him get more money
than skill or production would warrant, but to assume that he automatically
should make more than Dubinsky or approach $5 million a season is a reach.
Last week, George Ays of Blueshirt
Banter, looked at Ryan Callahan’s worth statistically to see what he
projects to be worth in the future. Here’s
an excerpt of what George’s analysis showed:
Assigning a dollar value to the data, the trend line says that Callahan will have a GVT of 34.39 over the next 4 years. Using the same $367k per GVT rate we used for Dubinsky, that means that the 4 year contract for Callahan would be $12.62m, or a cap hit of $3.155m. That's more than $1m less than Dubinsky, which seems out of line with public perception. This is where the note below the graph comes in. The comparison right now is not completely apples to apples.
Dubinsky's $4.28m was based on the assumption that he will play 82 games every year, while Callahan's is based on his current rate of games played, which has not been close to 82. We can adjust for that two ways. First, we could compare Dubinsky's actual GVT year to year, which gives an estimate of $15.03m, or a cap hit of $3.75m. The alternative is to use Callahan's last season 82 game GVT (10.6), and repeat it. That would also give a cap hit of $3.75m.
This post is not about denigrating what Callahan
does because he epitomizes what the Rangers are trying to be, but seeing where
he should actually fall in terms of price.
The price that has come to mind with Callahan for me has been somewhere around
$3.8 million which would be in line with George’s calculations. That is not to say Callahan won’t end up with
the higher prices many seem to believe he will get, just that he might not be
worth the higher end numbers being advanced.
The final outcome probably sees a splitting of the two perspectives and
Callahan making approximately the same as Dubinsky give or take about five
percent. Both Callahan and Dubinsky are
critical pieces to the Rangers current and future success and the sooner
Callahan joins Dubinsky in having a long term contract for New York, the
happier we will all be about it.
What do you think Ryan Callahan should and
will get paid in his new contract with the Rangers?
