Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Playoff Odds Certainly In Rangers Favor


The New York Rangers picked up two huge points in what could be described as a momentum building win.  The performance was one of those wins that could define a season and catapult the team on a hot streak.  Nod if you have heard that before this season.  The Rangers have had a series of those kinds of games this year and instead of building on them they have had a tendency to fall flat on their face the next time out.  They cannot afford for that to happen now.  Instead the momentum from that game has to be transferred into that hot stretch as the number of games dwindles and the number of teams sniffing around the playoffs is rising.  That must begin tonight against the Islanders who have been playing very hard and have not been an easy team to beat lately, so the same effort must be there tonight.
The odds for New York are significantly better this week as Sports Club Stats shows their probability of making the playoffs at 85.1% today as opposed to 77.27% last Monday.  According to the probability break down the key mark for the Rangers is as I have said for some time 90 points.  If they get to 90 points the probability they make the playoffs this year is 94.8%.
Assuming 90 is the magic number here is a look at what each team would have to do in order to reach 90 points.
Team
Current Points
Games Remaining
Record Necessary to Reach 90 pts
Buffalo
76
13
7-6
New York
76
12
7-5
Carolina
72
13
9-4
Atlanta
70
13
10-3
Toronto
70
12
10-2
New Jersey
68
14
11-3

The time for scoreboard watching and hoping for help is over as they control their destiny right now and they have to do it on the ice.  Tonight is the start of that as they can either increase their odds of a playoff spot to as high as 91.3% or as low as 72.9% depending on how the action plays out.  The biggest determinant of that is the Rangers own game as a win raises their chances by 4% while a loss drops it by a whopping 8.7%.  Handle your business Rangers because the numbers are on your side if you play each game to your capabilities.